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Ascending channel pattern and Ethereum options data back traders’ $5K ETH target

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Ether (ETH) bulls seem excited by the recent $4,870 all-time high that was hit on Nov. 10. While it was a new high in U.S. dollar terms, ETH is still 51% below June 2017’s price in Bitcoin (BTC) terms. But it’s entirely possible that the 0.155 BTC level reached in the previous cycle reflected the overzealous expectations that were rampant during the initial coin offering frenzy.

The Ethereum network’s success has caused congestion and high fees, bringing the competition closer. For example, in mid-2017, the leading “competitors” were Ethereum Classic (ETC) and NEM (XEM). Combined, those represented a mere 13% of Ether’s $37 billion market capitalization.

Today, the aggregate capitalization of Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana’s SOL stand at 32% versus Ether’s $557 billion.

At the moment, Ether is trading in an ascending channel with a target at $5,000, but bears apparently still have reasons to doubt the network’s ability to deliver Eth2 by year-end.

ETH/USD price on Kraken. Source: TradingView

This year, Ethereum’s leading use case, decentralized finance (DeFi), has gathered regulators’ attention — and not in a good way. On Nov. 9, United States Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw published her opinion in the article titled “DeFi risks, regulations and opportunities.” In it, she mentions that the sector lacks market protections, and she raises concerns about pseudonymity and market manipulation.

On the other hand, the value locked in the Ethereum network’s smart contracts reached a $94 billion all-time high, marking a 42% growth in three months. So, regardless of the competition or the $50 average transaction fee, there’s undoubtedly a growing demand for its DeFi, nonfungible token (NFT), oracle and decentralized marketplaces.

Ethereum network adjusted total value locked in USD. Source: DeBank

What is interesting is even with Ether’s positive price action, which is backed by strong usage metrics, bearish put (sell) options dominate Friday’s $700 million ETH options expiry.

Ether options aggregate open interest for Nov. 12. Source: Bybt

At first sight, the $415 million in put (sell) options dominate the weekly expiry by 31% compared with the $285 million in call (buy) instruments. The 0.69 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the recent rally will likely wipe out most bearish bets.

For example, if Ether’s price remains above $4,700 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 12, only $10 million worth of those put (sell) options will be available at the expiry. There is no value in a right to sell Ether at $4,700 if it’s trading above that price.

Bears could still tip the scale below $4,600

Below are the four most likely scenarios that consider the current price levels. In addition, the data shows how many contracts will be available on Nov. 12 for both bulls (call) and bear (put) instruments.

The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit:

  • Between $4,500 and $4,600: 7,500 calls vs. 13,600 puts. The net result favors bear (put) options by $25 million.
  • Between $4,600 and $4,700: 12,700 calls vs. 7,300 puts. The net result is $25 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Between $4,700 and $4,800: 17,300 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The net result is $75 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.
  • Above $4,800: 24,300 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result is complete dominance, with bulls profiting $115 million.

This raw estimate considers the call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Unfortunately, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Ether below a specific price. However, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.

Ether price may pull back, but $5,000 remains the target

If Ether’s price holds above $4,800 on Nov. 12, bulls will net a significant $115 million. In that sense, for ETH bears, taking a $25 million loss should be considered a victory.

There’s still a chance that bears avoid losses on Nov. 12’s expiry by pressuring Ether’s price below $4,600 on Nov. 12, down a mere 3% from the current $4,750. Would that be enough to reject the ascending channel initiated three weeks ago? Not really, as there’s room for $4,500 without breaking the support level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Cryptegrity DAO (ESCROW) is Now Available for Trading on Hotbit

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Cryptegrity DAO (ESCROW) is Now Available for Trading on Hotbit

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Hotbit Exchange, a global crypto trading platform, officially listed $ESCROW (Cryptegrity DAO) on January 27, 2023. The ESCROW/USDT trading pair is now available for all users of Hotbit Exchange.

To increase trust and protect the funds of buyers and sellers, Cryptegrity DAO (ESCROW) has introduced a means to trade crypto for goods and services without fear of theft or services not rendered, providing Security via smart contract technology. Its native token $ESCROW has been listed on Hotbit Exchange at 07:00 AM UTC on January 27, 2023, to expand its global reach further and maintain a secure and reliable platform for the exchange of goods and services using crypto.

INTRODUCING CRYPTEGRITY DAO

Cryptegrity is a blockchain-based platform that aims to increase trust between buyers and sellers of goods and services. The platform utilizes smart contract technology and cryptographic techniques to ensure transactions’ integrity and funds’ security. 

Cryptegrity’s web3 platform offers transparency and peace of mind that is impossible with traditional web2 competitors. Buyer funds are locked in an audited smart contract and released to the seller only when goods are received or services are rendered. This ensures that buyers and sellers can have confidence in the security of their transactions and reduces counterparty risk.

25% of revenue is distributed to $Escrow holders in real-time through smart contract technology. This revenue sharing continues for the lifespan of the platform or until all tokens are repurchased from public circulation. The Cryptegrity platform incentivizes the community and holders to help create liquidity and earn rewards by offering $Escrow for creating $Escrow LP pairs and staking them. Additionally, the Cryptegrity DAO rewards participants for contributing and resolving issues on the platform.

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In conclusion, Cryptegrity is an innovative platform changing our thoughts about online identity verification. With its cutting-edge technology, user-friendly interface, and listing on Hotbit, this project is poised to make a big impact in the industry.  

About $ESCROW Token

The Escrow Token serves dual purposes: it distributes platform fees to Token holders via revenue sharing and functions as a governance token with voting rights in the Cryptegrity DAO. It is the native token of the Cryptegrity Platform and is built on the Bep-20 and Erc-20 standards.

ESCROW has a total supply of 100 million tokens, with the following allocation: 10% to founders, 10% to the team, 10% for marketing and development, 10% for promotions, 10% for partnerships, 10% for liquidity for future DEX and CEX, and 40% available for sale to the public.

The ESCROW token is now available for trading on Hotbit Exchange starting at 07:00 AM UTC on January 27, 2023. Investors can easily buy and sell the token in relation to the Cryptegrity Project. The listing on Hotbit Exchange will aid in expanding the project’s reach and increasing market attention.

ABOUT HOTBIT

Founded in 2018 and holding Estonian MTR license, American MSB license, Australian AUSTRAC license, and Canadian MSB license, Hotbit cryptocurrency exchange is known as a leading trading platform that continues to develop and integrate various forms of businesses such as spot trading, financial derivatives, cryptocurrency investment and DAPP into one platform. Hotbit has already gained over 8 Million registered users from more than 210 countries and regions. Based on its globalized and unified strategies, Hotbit continues to focus on world’s emerging markets, such as Russia, Turkey and Southeast Asia markets and was ranked one of the top 3 most welcomed exchanges by Russian media in 2019. Hotbit is constantly introducing and listing high-quality crypto projects so its users can directly trade, manage, track, and analyze cryptocurrencies, making the entire experience easier for ordinary people.

Start Trading Now: Hotbit.io

Telegram: https://t.me/Hotbit_English 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Hotbit_news


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Centralized Exchange Tokens Post Solid Gains in January Despite SEC Interest; Bitcoin, Ether, in the Red.

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Centralized Exchange Tokens Post Solid Gains in January Despite SEC Interest; Bitcoin, Ether, in the Red.


“If demand for trading on the FTX platform increased, demand for the FTT token could increase, such that any price increase in FTT would benefit holders of FTT equally and in direct proportion to their FTT holdings,” the SEC wrote in its complaint. “The large allocation of tokens to FTX incentivized the FTX management team to take steps to attract more users onto the trading platform and, therefore, increase demand for, and increase the trading price of, the FTT token.”


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Australian Government Flagged FTX Concerns Eight Months Before Downfall

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Australian Government Flagged FTX Concerns Eight Months Before Downfall

A new report shows that the fallen crypto exchange FTX had already caused concerns with the Australian regulator months before its collapse. According to a document on The Guardian Australia’s website, the ASIC (Australian Securities and Investments Commission) started investigating the firm’s local operation last March.

An article in the Australian Financial Review prompted the concerns. The article outlined the now-bankrupt exchange’s plans to launch in Australia within a few weeks. FTX caused more concerns when rumors that it would allow users to purchase cryptocurrencies with margin loans of 30 times their investment started making rounds.

In early April 2022, several Australian regulators held meetings with FTX leadership, and at that time, the exchange promised to operate under the stipulated while cautioning its customers about potential scams. However, the regulators somehow remained concerned about the FTX business.

Report Shows ASIC Issued Several Notices to FTX Australia Within a Few Months

In a span of four months, the ASIC had issued about four notices to FTX’s Australian subsidiary, requesting more information about its business operations. However, to avoid interfering with its law enforcement activities, ASIC did not issue the notices via a freedom of information request.

The Guardian Australia’s briefing document released on November 12, 2022, a day after FTX had filed for bankruptcy, indicates that, indeed, the ASIC had been carrying out what’s described in the document as a ‘surveillance activity’ on the fallen exchange since last March.

The document stated that since March 2022, the Australian regulator has been requesting information from FTX Australia regarding its financial offerings. Among the issues raised included the firm’s compliance with the ASIC’s product intervention order alongside pricing and how it registered new users.

FTX Licensing Strategy

It has been discovered that FTX Australian began its operations without ASIC’s approval because it evaded the usual licensing procedures by buying out an existing firm that had possessed an Australian Financial Services License since 2021.

Another revelation shows that IFS Markets, the company acquired by FTX, had also gotten the license by taking over another financial firm called Forex Financial Services a few months earlier.


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