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Bitcoin exchange supply maintains the drop, but will BTC’s resurgence change its fortune

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Bitcoin news

  • Supply on centralized exchanges remains depleted despite an increase in Bitcoin network activity.
  • Bulls might need to keep a cool head as 30-day SMA addresses had not finalized surpassing the 365-day SMA.

The dishonesty of FTX, accompanied by the havoc experienced in 2022, led many Bitcoin [BTC] holders to switch to self-custody. However, other unaffected exchanges were quick to respond in the bid to gain back investors’ trust. Led by Binance [BNB], exchanges with millions of users followed through with the Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) system.


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Will exchange supply ever return to normal?

Despite attempts, the action has failed to yield significant results. According to an 18 January Santiment update, BTC’s supply in the last 365 days dropped from 11.85% to 6.65%. This data was coined from the supply activities of the top six exchanges, with Kraken being the most affected. 

Bitcoin supply on exchanges

Source: Santiment

The metric condition means that holders of the king coin had not exited their position on the safety of their assets being in their own hands. But with BTC putting up an extraordinary performance in the last two weeks, shouldn’t exchanges get more supply?

However, a lot of factors could be at play besides the crash of the Sam Bankman- Fried (SBF)-led exchange. Recently, Gemini has had its own share of troubles. Although in different circumstances, the issues plaguing Gemini also have the tendency to negatively affect its users. Hence, this was another valid reason for BTC holders to overlook non-custodial platforms.

On gauging the supply outside of exchanges, Santiment revealed that it has been on a non-stop increase. At the time of writing, it was 18.1 million, as BTC traded at $21,200.

The BTC price and supply outside of exchangesThe BTC price and supply outside of exchanges

Source: Santiment

BTC is back, but it could be better

Moreso, BTC’s trend helped change the fortunes of some investors affected by the 2022 drawdown. This was because Bitcoin was back above the realized price. Hence, this ensured that the average BTC holder had their assets above the reds.


Realistic or not, here’s BTC’s market cap in ETH’s terms


In addition, it might still be difficult for the BTC uptick to contribute to an increase in exchange supply. This assertion was due to Glassnode’s report showing that it was not yet a full-blown bull market. Instead, the possibility of exiting the reds was in progress.

According to the report, the 30-day SMA of new addresses has only surpassed the 365-day SMA for a month. To confirm the bullish trait, the former must have outpaced the latter by a minimum of 60 days. But since that was not the case, the upturn had a chance of being a false move. However, the 30-day sustenance signaled a push in network growth and activity. 

Bitcoin new addresses momentumBitcoin new addresses momentum

Source: Glassnode


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Data Shows 50% Of Bitcoin Hashrate Controlled By Two Mining Pools

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50% of Bitcoin hashrate Controlled by Two Mining Pools

Bitcoin hashrate is becoming highly centralized, with a few mining pools controlling most of the blockchain mining power. The latest data from Mempool indicates that 50% of the total hashrate is held by Foundry USA and Antpool. 

A Highly Centralized Mining Network

Foundry USA has maintained a hashrate of over 30% of the total Bitcoin network for several weeks. It became the first mining pool of non-Chinese origin to lead the list in November 2021, following the ban on Bitcoin mining in China in the middle of the same year. 

Back then, Foundry USA contributed 17% of the total Bitcoin hashrate. Today, the US-based pool averages 34.1% of the mining power, equivalent to about 104 EH/s, considering that the Bitcoin hashrate is around 300 EH/S. 

Related Reading: First Bitcoin Mining Powered By Nuclear Energy To Open In The U.S. In Q1 This Year 

Antpool comes in second with about 18.0% of the total hashrate equivalent to about 58 EH/s. The Chinese-based pool used to be the largest Bitcoin pool but was affected by the ban on crypto mining which caused several miners in the region to migrate. 

Bitcoin Pool distribution records on Dec. 29, 2022 (3-day stats)/Mempool.com

What Is Behind This Trend?

The graph shows that over 80% of Bitcoin’s mining power is concentrated among just 5 pools. This contrasts with the beginning of 2022, when these five mining pools barely exceeded 60% of the hashrate. 

Some factors could have contributed to this rise. One of which is the location of the servers of the said pools. The closer the servers are to the pools and mining facilities, the lower the information transfer latency. This means that a miner will likely get more shares in the mining process and earn more Bitcoin (BTC) by connecting to a closer server. 

Bitcoin hashrate difficulty
Bitcoin hashrate difficulty for January/CoinWarz.com

Another factor is the financial incentives offered by these major mining pools. Bigger mining pools can consistently distribute profits to their members, who pay a commission for mining with their resources, driving more miners to their ecosystem. This is evident with the high mining difficulty in recent weeks due to the bullish movement of Bitcoin, making it difficult for smaller mining pools to be profitable. 

Related Reading: Why The S&P 500 Could Help Send Bitcoin Soaring Higher

However, Bitcoin’s highly centralized mining system poses significant dangers to the cryptocurrency. The miners could agree to reject transactions that do not meet a specific parameter leading to a 51% attack. 

We’ve seen such attacks occur on other Proof-of-Work blockchains like Ethereum Classic, which could be a problem for Bitcoin. In addition, these pools are recognized companies and could face pressures from regulatory agencies trying to control activities on the Bitcoin network. 

Bitcoin Price

So far, Bitcoin is still maintaining its bullish trend, with the leading cryptocurrency up by 40% since the start of the year. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $23,400, according to data from Tradingview.com. 

Bitcoin Price on January 28| Source: BTCUSDT on Binance, TradingView
Bitcoin Price on January 28| Source: BTCUSDT TradingView

Featured image from Pixabay, charts from Trading View, Coinwarz, and Mempool


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This week in Crypto; Axie, Aptos Record Big Gains as Ethereum Drops

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This week in Crypto; Axie, Aptos Record Big Gains as Ethereum Drops

On Sunday morning, Ethereum, the second largest crypto by market capitalization, was the only top ten coin that saw a drop in value. Other major coins have continued to record gains for the fourth consecutive week.

Meanwhile, the most popular crypto, Bitcoin, has seen 7-day gains of about 3.2%, and as of this writing, it is trading at $23,221, as per CoinGecko. This week, researchers have claimed that the ideal time to take long positions in the crypto market is during the end of the Chinese New Year’s first day.

Data on CoinGecko shows that Ethereum has dropped by 5.3% in the past seven days and is trading at $1,572. On Tuesday, Ethereum developers revealed they had achieved a significant milestone toward the network’s most anticipated update, the Shanghai Upgrade. The upgrade will allow stakers to withdraw their funds.

Aptos Records 7-day Gains of 57%

Aptos is up 57% this week, and at the time of publishing, it is changing hands for $17.10. It is difficult to tell what’s fueling the rally, but a huge portion of the token’s trading volume has been from arbitrage trading on the south Korean-based exchange, UpBit.

Some exchanges in South Korea usually price crypto higher than other global exchanges. Many traders involved in arbitrage trading refer to this discrepancy as Kimchi Premium. It is worth noting that this is how FTX’s ex-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried started his crypto trading journey.

Launched last October, Aptos began trading at $13 before it crashed by 45% following criticism that the developer behind the blockchain did not reveal its tokenomics and failed to fulfill their promise of processing over 100,000 transactions per second. The current price means the investors have recovered their losses.

Axie Infinity is Up 25% This Week

On the other hand, Axie Infinity (AXS) recorded an increase of 25% in the past seven days. On Monday alone, the token gained about 24% following a token unlock that saw about 2.2% of the game’s total supply released to the market. According to CoinGecko, AXS is trading at $11.45 as of this writing.

Other Cryptos That Saw Notable Gains

Other top cryptocurrencies that recorded notable rallies this week include OKB. The token currently trades at $38.23, representing a 14% increase in the past seven days. In addition, Avalanche rose by 17% to change hands for $20.28, while Polygon, the tenth largest crypto by market cap, increased by 8% and is trading at $1.12.


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Bitcoin’s [BTC] price reversal might be on the cards?

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Bitcoin's [BTC] imminent price reversal might be on the cards?

  • BTC’s price has rallied by 40% since 1 January.
  • Investors have recorded significant gains, and now, a price reversal might follow. 

Exchanging hands at the $23,200 price mark at press time, the leading coin Bitcoin [BTC], currently trades at levels last seen in August 2022. On a year-to-date basis, BTC’s price has rallied by 40%, per data from CoinMarketCap.

Sharing a statistically significant positive correlation with several other assets in the market, the growth in BTC’s price has resulted in the growth in the value of several other crypto assets in the last month.

According to data from CoinGecko, global cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by 21% in the last month.


How much are 1,10,100 BTCs worth today?


Holders are in profit, but for how long?

BTC’s rally to a five-month high in the last month has led many of its holders to log profits on their BTC holdings. An assessment of the cost basis for short-term and long-term holders revealed this.

The cost basis for any BTC holder is the average purchase price of the BTC they possess. This considers any variations in BTC’s price at the time of purchase. This cost basis determines capital gains or losses when the BTC is sold. 

According to Twitter analyst Will Clemente, the cost basis for short-term and long-term BTC holders were $18,900 and $22,300, respectively.

However, since BTC’s price has rallied beyond these points, these cohorts of investors were “no longer underwater,” Clemente said. 

Further, CryptoQuant analyst Phi Deltalytics assessed BTC’s short-term Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and found that “sentiment from Bitcoin short-term on-chain participants has reached the greediest level since January 2021.” According to the analyst, the SOPR was positioned well above the bullish threshold of one, indicating an overly stretched market.


Is your portfolio green? Check out the Bitcoin Profit Calculator


Deltalytics noted further that the bullish trend could be short-lived without an increase in stablecoin reserves on spot exchanges. 

Source: CryptoQuant

A look at Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirmed the analyst’s position. At press time, the index showed that greed permeated the cryptocurrency markets.

When the index is in the “greed” range, it means that investors have become increasingly confident and optimistic about the market and may be more willing to take on risk.

This also suggests that prices are becoming overvalued and that a market correction may be imminent.

Source: Alternative.me

An assessment of BTC’s movement on the daily chart confirmed the possibility of a price correction. Since 21 January, the king coin has traded in a tight range.

When BTC’s price oscillates within a tight range, it means that the price is not making significant moves in either direction and is staying within a relatively narrow band. 

An analysis of BTC’s Money Flow Index (MFI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicators raised more concerns as these technical indicators have been trending downwards since 21 January. 

The tight range of BTC’s price combined with downtrends in the MFI and CMF suggested a lack of buying momentum and potential for increased selling pressure.

This also showed that the market was likely to break down from the tight range to the downside.

Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView


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