Bitcoin (BTC) still risks “considerable danger” in 2023 as macroeconomic conditions dictate price action.
That is according to economist Lyn Alden, who in private comments to Cointelegraph cautioned on Bitcoin staying bullish after its January gains.
Alden: BTC price bottom is a “process”
Optimism is increasing throughout crypto as BTC/USD broadly retains levels, which are 40% higher than at the start of the year.
What the rest of 2023 may hold, however, is still a topic of debate, and Alden suggests that it is naive to assume that the good times will continue unchecked.
The reason, she says, lies with the United States lawmakers and the Federal Reserve.
“I expect the BTC bottom to be a process,” she summarized about the current state of Bitcoin.
“BTC prices are heavily tied to liquidity conditions, and liquidity conditions have been improving since Q4 2022.”
That recovery has effectively removed any trace of the FTX debacle from the chart, with BTC/USD now circling its highest levels since mid-August.
“The FTX/Alameda collapse pulled down the industry in the second half of Q4 even as many other assets rallied (equities, gold, etc), and now it seems that BTC is playing a bit of catch-up, and getting back to where it would have been without the FTX/Alameda collapse occurring,” Alden continued.
BTC/USD traded at around $22,600 at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
“Considerable danger ahead”
What could lie beyond that “catch-up,” however, could be less savory for bulls.
Related: BTC metrics exit capitulation — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The Fed is currently conducting quantitative tightening (QT), removing liquidity from the economy to fight inflation after several years of mass liquidity injections, which began in March 2020.
These are being mitigated thanks to U.S. domestic politics, but later on, the status quo could shift back to the kind of restrictive mood seen throughout Bitcoin’s bear market year of 2022.
“There is considerable danger ahead of for the second half of 2023,” Alden explained.
“Liquidity conditions are good right now in part because the U.S. Treasury is drawing down its cash balance to avoid going over the debt ceiling, and this pushes liquidity into the financial system. So, the Treasury has been offsetting some of the QT that the Federal Reserve is doing. Once the debt ceiling issue gets resolved, the Treasury will be refilling its cash account, which pulls liquidity out of the system. At that point, both the Treasury and Fed will be sucking liquidity out of the system, and that would create a vulnerable time for risk assets in general including BTC.”
If H2 proves to be Bitcoin’s reckoning, it would tie in with other warnings from market commentators regarding 2023.
As Cointelegraph reported, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of exchange BitMEX, has a much grimmer forecast for the year, likewise courtesy of Fed policy.
In the long term, however, Alden is confident that Bitcoin will recover from its recent lows for good.
“I do think this is a deep value accumulation zone for BTC with a 3-5 year view, but traders should be aware of the liquidity risks in the second half of this year,” she concluded.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Cryptegrity DAO (ESCROW) is Now Available for Trading on Hotbit
Hotbit Exchange, a global crypto trading platform, officially listed $ESCROW (Cryptegrity DAO) on January 27, 2023. The ESCROW/USDT trading pair is now available for all users of Hotbit Exchange.
To increase trust and protect the funds of buyers and sellers, Cryptegrity DAO (ESCROW) has introduced a means to trade crypto for goods and services without fear of theft or services not rendered, providing Security via smart contract technology. Its native token $ESCROW has been listed on Hotbit Exchange at 07:00 AM UTC on January 27, 2023, to expand its global reach further and maintain a secure and reliable platform for the exchange of goods and services using crypto.
INTRODUCING CRYPTEGRITY DAO
Cryptegrity is a blockchain-based platform that aims to increase trust between buyers and sellers of goods and services. The platform utilizes smart contract technology and cryptographic techniques to ensure transactions’ integrity and funds’ security.
Cryptegrity’s web3 platform offers transparency and peace of mind that is impossible with traditional web2 competitors. Buyer funds are locked in an audited smart contract and released to the seller only when goods are received or services are rendered. This ensures that buyers and sellers can have confidence in the security of their transactions and reduces counterparty risk.
25% of revenue is distributed to $Escrow holders in real-time through smart contract technology. This revenue sharing continues for the lifespan of the platform or until all tokens are repurchased from public circulation. The Cryptegrity platform incentivizes the community and holders to help create liquidity and earn rewards by offering $Escrow for creating $Escrow LP pairs and staking them. Additionally, the Cryptegrity DAO rewards participants for contributing and resolving issues on the platform.
In conclusion, Cryptegrity is an innovative platform changing our thoughts about online identity verification. With its cutting-edge technology, user-friendly interface, and listing on Hotbit, this project is poised to make a big impact in the industry.
About $ESCROW Token
The Escrow Token serves dual purposes: it distributes platform fees to Token holders via revenue sharing and functions as a governance token with voting rights in the Cryptegrity DAO. It is the native token of the Cryptegrity Platform and is built on the Bep-20 and Erc-20 standards.
ESCROW has a total supply of 100 million tokens, with the following allocation: 10% to founders, 10% to the team, 10% for marketing and development, 10% for promotions, 10% for partnerships, 10% for liquidity for future DEX and CEX, and 40% available for sale to the public.
The ESCROW token is now available for trading on Hotbit Exchange starting at 07:00 AM UTC on January 27, 2023. Investors can easily buy and sell the token in relation to the Cryptegrity Project. The listing on Hotbit Exchange will aid in expanding the project’s reach and increasing market attention.
Founded in 2018 and holding Estonian MTR license, American MSB license, Australian AUSTRAC license, and Canadian MSB license, Hotbit cryptocurrency exchange is known as a leading trading platform that continues to develop and integrate various forms of businesses such as spot trading, financial derivatives, cryptocurrency investment and DAPP into one platform. Hotbit has already gained over 8 Million registered users from more than 210 countries and regions. Based on its globalized and unified strategies, Hotbit continues to focus on world’s emerging markets, such as Russia, Turkey and Southeast Asia markets and was ranked one of the top 3 most welcomed exchanges by Russian media in 2019. Hotbit is constantly introducing and listing high-quality crypto projects so its users can directly trade, manage, track, and analyze cryptocurrencies, making the entire experience easier for ordinary people.
Start Trading Now: Hotbit.io
Centralized Exchange Tokens Post Solid Gains in January Despite SEC Interest; Bitcoin, Ether, in the Red.
“If demand for trading on the FTX platform increased, demand for the FTT token could increase, such that any price increase in FTT would benefit holders of FTT equally and in direct proportion to their FTT holdings,” the SEC wrote in its complaint. “The large allocation of tokens to FTX incentivized the FTX management team to take steps to attract more users onto the trading platform and, therefore, increase demand for, and increase the trading price of, the FTT token.”
Australian Government Flagged FTX Concerns Eight Months Before Downfall
A new report shows that the fallen crypto exchange FTX had already caused concerns with the Australian regulator months before its collapse. According to a document on The Guardian Australia’s website, the ASIC (Australian Securities and Investments Commission) started investigating the firm’s local operation last March.
An article in the Australian Financial Review prompted the concerns. The article outlined the now-bankrupt exchange’s plans to launch in Australia within a few weeks. FTX caused more concerns when rumors that it would allow users to purchase cryptocurrencies with margin loans of 30 times their investment started making rounds.
In early April 2022, several Australian regulators held meetings with FTX leadership, and at that time, the exchange promised to operate under the stipulated while cautioning its customers about potential scams. However, the regulators somehow remained concerned about the FTX business.
Report Shows ASIC Issued Several Notices to FTX Australia Within a Few Months
In a span of four months, the ASIC had issued about four notices to FTX’s Australian subsidiary, requesting more information about its business operations. However, to avoid interfering with its law enforcement activities, ASIC did not issue the notices via a freedom of information request.
The Guardian Australia’s briefing document released on November 12, 2022, a day after FTX had filed for bankruptcy, indicates that, indeed, the ASIC had been carrying out what’s described in the document as a ‘surveillance activity’ on the fallen exchange since last March.
The document stated that since March 2022, the Australian regulator has been requesting information from FTX Australia regarding its financial offerings. Among the issues raised included the firm’s compliance with the ASIC’s product intervention order alongside pricing and how it registered new users.
FTX Licensing Strategy
It has been discovered that FTX Australian began its operations without ASIC’s approval because it evaded the usual licensing procedures by buying out an existing firm that had possessed an Australian Financial Services License since 2021.
Another revelation shows that IFS Markets, the company acquired by FTX, had also gotten the license by taking over another financial firm called Forex Financial Services a few months earlier.
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