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Bitcoin: This data clarifies whether investors should remain in fear or go all in

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Bitcoin: This data clarifies whether investors should remain in fear or go all in

  • Investors remain terrified of trading BTC despite a possible bullish breakout.
  • Altcoins dominated the market in the first week of 2023; although on-chain signals protected a BTC market balance.

The antics of Bitcoin [BTC] over the last few months have been swindled in unpredictability, leading many investors torn between aping into “opportunities” or anticipating another nosedive. In light of all this, the Bitcoin fear and greed index still showed that there was still extreme fear in the market.


How many BTCs can you get for $1?


The hope to gain and the need to be careful

Off the back of dismay, CryptoQuant analyst Tomáš Hančar opined that BTC could switch to bullish conditions sooner than expected. Hančar, who published his analysis on the market data platform, cited the exchange depositing transactions hitting a four-year low as one of his reasons. 

Situations like this usually align with the fear and greed index position of lack of trade consideration. Other than the deposits on the 30-day Moving Average (MA), the analyst pointed to the Bollinger Bands (BB).

Based on his analysis, the BB exhibited intense contraction, which has never been the case. Hence, this position could bring about a breakout and significant uptick.

While he solidly stood his bull ground, Hančar asked traders to be cautious of the long consolidation, which could affect the potential of a profitable breakout. He wrote, 

“This can be a very profitable break out trade either way, but if you play these stop buy/stop sell “through the roof” or “through the floor” set ups after such a long consolidation, be sure to manage your risk properly.”

Altcoins’ dominance causing unease

Another CryptoQuant publication was concerned for BTC as many altcoins outperformed it in the first few days of the year. According to Maartunn, a 50% altcoin dominance over BTC was unhealthy. 

The circumstances meant traders were discontented with BTC while attending to other options. This placed risk on the BTC curve. Maartunn also compared the state to the end of the bull run in 2021 and the massive altcoin supremacy over BTC during the Ethereum [ETH] Merge.

Bitcoin-altcoin volume dominance

Source: CryptoQuant


A 0.02x potential value decrease if BTC hits Polygon’s market cap?


In the case where the dominance abounded, BTC could drop further below the $16,800 region. However, information from CoinMarketCap, at press time, showed that the altcoin surge had subdued. So, there might be no need for an exorbitant fall.

For the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) signal, Glassnode showed that it has slightly risen from its downfall in November 2022. This metric uses the 90-day moving average to assess how the market cap outpaces transaction volume.

At 18.96, the NVT signal was approaching equilibrium. This suggested some sort of market stability and a possible mid-phase of the bear market.

Bitcoin NVT signal Bitcoin NVT signal

Source: Santiment


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Bitcoin Has Entered Into The Early Bull Phase — Crypto Pundit Avers ⋆ ZyCrypto

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Still Bullish: Billionaire Money Manager Bill Miller Maintains View Bitcoin Will Rise Again Despite FTX Chaos

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Ki Young Ju, the CEO of data analytic firm CryptoQuant is convinced that Bitcoin is on the cusp of a major lift-off as crypto traders continue to switch from a risk-off to risk-on mode.

Earlier yesterday, Young tweeted that Bitcoin had “entered into the early bull phase”, suggesting that the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization could be preparing to push higher. Despite plunging by roughly 77% on the back of macroeconomic headwinds and a wider route in the crypto industry last year, Bitcoin has had a good run so far this year. This month alone, the crypto asset’s value grew over 40%, fully recovering from the FTX-induced sell-off and perching above levels last seen in August.

According to Young, whereas the asset’s price could pull back following the recent pump, there is a higher chance that it will continue to rise as various metrics turn positive. Highlighting the MVRV ratio, a profit and loss indicator that measures if the bitcoin price is undervalued or overvalued, the pundit noted that most investors were still underwater, reducing the incentive to sell.

Typically, when MVRV is above 3.7 (red area), bitcoin is said to be overvalued (market tops), and when it is below 1 (green area), bitcoin is said to be undervalued (market bottom). Recently the MVRV indicator moved above 1 (1.07), signalling the beginning of a bull cycle. 

In Young’s words;

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“No one would want to sell here at a significant loss. If someone sells a lot, it’s highly likely forced & unwanted selling due to bankruptcy, government-seized coins, etc.”

On Wednesday, Young also stated that there was a likelihood that wealthy investors would purchase struggling US-based Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies and their crypto holdings at a discount this year, preventing further miner capitulation. According to him, such acquisitions would significantly remove systematic risks associated with the mining sector, igniting a bullish storm for BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

“BTC miner capitulation might play out differently this time. Less likely, but it could be bullish if someone(s) acquires US-based Bitcoin mining companies and their crypto holdings at a significant discount this year,” he said.

Notably, the total supply of BTC in loss hit a 9-month-low this week, the lowest since April 2022, when Bitcoin was trading in the $40,000 range. Cryptoquant noted that “every time the supply in loss reaches values above 50%, capitulations occur, and price bottoms can be identified along Bitcoin’s history.” Currently, 32% of Bitcoin’s total supply is in loss after dropping from about 55% a month ago.

BTCUSD Chart by TradingView

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $23,049, up 0.14% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.


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FTX Attorneys To Drag SBF’s Parents And Brother In Questioning About Their Personal Wealth

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FTX

The tragedy of FTX appears to be becoming more personal, as the bankrupt exchange’s legal counsels are now seeking to drag the founder’s family members and grill them about how they established their affluence.

In a court filing, FTX attorneys requested that Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, testify under oath and produce financial papers regarding their personal fortune as part of the company’s effort to reclaim funds that may be used to repay creditors.

Gabriel, the brother of former FTX CEO Bankman-Fried, will also be questioned in court over any financial benefits he may have gotten from the company.

SBF, although being collaborative to the point of spending the rest of his life in prison, has neglected to provide federal prosecutors with all the necessary information regarding the diverted money, resulting in the current situation.

Image: Euronews

Lawyers Seek Answer From SBF Family If They Received Money From FTX

In light of claims that FTX shifted billions of dollars in investor cash to prop up his Alameda Research trading unit, federal authorities have accused him with fraud. SBF entered a not-guilty plea.

According to reports, other FTX executives may be subject to the same inquiry in an attempt to locate assets associated with the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange.

Sources also have it that Bankman-Fried’s mother provided tax advice and recruitment assistance to FTX personnel.

SBFFTX former CEO, Sam Bankman-Fried. Image: CNA.

Reportedly, his father served as a tax counsel to employees of the company and provided recommendations for the appointment of the company’s legal team.

Supposedly, Gabriel established a lobbying group and housed its operations in a mansion worth several million dollars not far from the U.S. Capitol.

It has been stated that his mother and brother are not helping with the investigation that is currently taking place into FTX.

Reuters reported in November that Bankman-Fried’s parents were signatories on a $16.4 million residence in the Bahamas, which was designated in property records as a “holiday home.”

FTX Owes Thousands Of Creditors  Money

SBF faces eight criminal counts, including violations of campaign finance regulations and wire fraud. Since his extradition from the Bahamas to the United States, he has been under house arrest at his parents’ home. His trial is scheduled to commence in October.

After the collapse of the once-powerful cryptocurrency exchange in November, newly released bankruptcy records revealed thousands of creditors to whom FTX owes funds.

Wall Street stalwarts like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs were included on the 116-page list of creditors, which also included firms, charities, people, and other institutions.

Crypto total market cap at $996 billion on the daily chart | Chart: TradingView.com

Meanwhile, FTX has opposed to a request from the U.S. Department of Justice for an independent inquiry into the company’s collapse, claiming that it is already conducting a comprehensive review that includes family members of SBF.

FTT, the native token of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange, had risen by 185% over the last 30 days.

At the time of writing, the altcoin was trading for $1,940, a decrease of approximately 22% from its previous price of $2,4.00.

-Featured image: Novel Suspects


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Kraken Appoints CJ Rinaldi as Chief Compliance Officer

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Kraken Appoints CJ Rinaldi as Chief Compliance Officer

New CCO brings three decades of financial services experience

SAN FRANCISCO – Jan. 24, 2023 – Kraken, one of the world’s largest and most-trusted crypto platforms, today announced the appointment of CJ Rinaldi as Chief Compliance Officer. CJ’s decades of experience, both in traditional and decentralized finance, will further strengthen Kraken’s compliance program amid a fast-evolving regulatory landscape. 

“To accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies around the world, Kraken must continue to navigate an increasingly complex regulatory landscape,” said Kraken’s incoming CEO David Ripley. “CJ’s impressive international career in both the private and public sectors positions us for continued success in meeting global compliance needs.”

CJ was previously Chief Compliance Officer at Blockchain.com, where he was tasked with building out global compliance frameworks and mitigating compliance risk for the firm. Prior to that, CJ had several roles at Deutsche Bank, including Chief Compliance Officer for its swap dealer and US broker dealer. He also served as Head of Business Line Anti-Financial Crimes Compliance supporting its investment bank, where he led a global team tasked with mitigating financial crime risk, implementing procedures and controls through effective and efficient operational solutions. 

“Kraken’s commitment to security and transparency while building world class products and services makes it the gold standard in an industry that’s shaping the future of finance. It is trusted players like Kraken that will help ensure the crypto ecosystem operates within all regulatory frameworks” says Rinaldi. “I am excited to grow Kraken’s data-driven approach to compliance, ensuring the protection of both the company and its clients.”

Prior to Deutsche Bank, CJ worked at UBS Investment Bank in multiple roles, including as Global Head of Client Infrastructure. He also served as Senior Counsel in the Enforcement Division of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

For more information, please visit kraken.com or reach out to [email protected].

About Kraken:

Kraken is one of the world’s longest-standing digital asset platforms. Globally, Kraken clients trade more than 200 digital assets and 8 different national currencies, including GBP, EUR, USD, CAD, JPY, CHF, AUD and AED.

Kraken was founded in 2011 and was one of the first exchanges to offer spot trading with margin, parachain auctions, staking, regulated derivatives and index services. In 2022, it launched a custodial NFT marketplace. Kraken is trusted by over 9 million traders and institutions around the world and offers professional, round-the-clock online support. Kraken was the first company to have ever conducted a Proof of Reserves audit and has since committed to undergoing Proof of Reserves on a regular basis.

Kraken is backed by investors including Tribe Capital, SkyBridge, Hummingbird Ventures, Blockchain Capital, Digital Currency Group, among others.

Kraken markets can be monitored and traded through the Kraken iOS and Android apps, and through the Cryptowatch iOS, Android and Desktop apps.

Contacts: 

[email protected]

Alex Rapoport

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These materials are for general information purposes only and are not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any cryptoasset or to engage in any specific trading strategy. Some crypto products and markets are unregulated, and you may not be protected by government compensation and/or regulatory protection schemes. The unpredictable nature of the cryptoasset markets can lead to loss of funds. Tax may be payable on any return and/or on any increase in the value of your cryptoassets and you should seek independent advice on your taxation position. For more information, please see our Terms of Service.

 


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