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Crypto Research

Crypto prediction of 2023



I predicted in 2022, and they were widely off!

But I would like to do it again, this time in a very bearish prediction of the future…

#1 Crypto exchange bad reputation

After FTX, the crypto exchanges are questioned toward to end of 2022, it will continue being judged by people.

It can be risky to store your cryptocurrency on an exchange because exchanges are a common target for hackers. If a hacker is able to gain access to an exchange’s servers, they may be able to steal the cryptocurrencies that are stored there. This is why it is important to choose a reputable and secure exchange, and to enable two-factor authentication to add an extra layer of protection to your account.

Even if an exchange has strong security measures in place, there is always a risk that it could be hacked or that the exchange could go out of business, potentially leading to the loss of your cryptocurrency. For this reason, it is generally considered to be more secure to store your cryptocurrency in a personal wallet that is under your control. This way, you are the only one who has access to your private keys, which are needed to spend your cryptocurrency.

Ultimately, the decision to store your cryptocurrency on an exchange or in a personal wallet is a personal one that depends on your own risk tolerance and needs. It is important to carefully consider the potential risks and to make a decision that is right for you.

#2 Crypto regulation is coming

Cryptocurrency regulation is an evolving area, and the level of regulation varies from country to country. In some countries, there is little or no regulation of cryptocurrency, while in others, there are more comprehensive laws and regulations in place.

Many governments around the world are considering or have already implemented some form of regulation for cryptocurrency. These regulations can take a variety of forms, such as requiring exchanges to register with financial regulators, imposing taxes on cryptocurrency transactions, or setting rules for the use of cryptocurrency in payments.

The goal of these regulations is often to protect consumers and prevent money laundering, terrorist financing, and other illicit activities. Some people believe that regulation is necessary to establish trust in the cryptocurrency market and to encourage mainstream adoption. Others argue that too much regulation could stifle innovation and undermine the decentralization and anonymity that are key features of many cryptocurrencies.

It is difficult to predict exactly how cryptocurrency regulation will develop in the future, as it is an evolving area and different countries are taking different approaches. It is important to stay informed about the regulatory landscape in your country and to understand how it might affect your ability to buy, sell, and use cryptocurrency.

#3 CBDC is coming

CBDC, or Central Bank Digital Currency, refers to a digital currency issued and backed by a central bank. CBDCs are intended to provide an alternative to physical cash and to offer a range of benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments, improved financial inclusion, and better traceability of transactions.

The adoption of CBDCs is still in the early stages, and different central banks are taking different approaches to their development and implementation. Some central banks, such as the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Thailand, have already launched pilot projects or limited releases of CBDCs, while others, such as the European Central Bank, are still in the early stages of exploring the potential of CBDCs.

It is difficult to predict the extent to which CBDCs will be widely adopted in the future, as it will depend on a range of factors, including the specific features and benefits of the CBDCs that are developed, the regulatory environment, and the level of public trust and acceptance. Some experts believe that CBDCs have the potential to revolutionize the way that money is used and could eventually become a widely-used form of payment, while others are more skeptical about their prospects.

#4 Metaverse and NFTs may come back

The metaverse is a collective virtual shared space, created by the convergence of virtually enhanced physical reality and physically persistent virtual space, including the sum of all virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the internet. It is a concept that has been explored in science fiction and technology circles for decades, and it is often seen as a potential evolution of the internet.

NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, are a type of digital asset that represents ownership of a unique item or piece of content, such as a piece of art, a collectible, or a virtual real estate asset. NFTs are built on blockchain technology and are unique because they cannot be exchanged for other tokens or assets on a one-to-one basis, as is the case with many other cryptocurrencies.

It is possible that the metaverse and NFTs could play a role in the future evolution of the internet and the way that people interact with and own digital assets. Some experts believe that the metaverse could become a major platform for social interaction, entertainment, and commerce, and that NFTs could be used to represent and trade a wide range of digital assets within this virtual environment. It is still too early to say exactly how the metaverse and NFTs will develop, but they are areas that are worth keeping an eye on as they could potentially have a significant impact on the way that we interact with the digital world.

#5 Institutional adoption slowly

Institutional adoption of cryptocurrency refers to the involvement of financial institutions, such as banks, asset managers, and hedge funds, in the cryptocurrency market. 

Institutional adoption is seen as a key factor in the growth and mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrency, as it brings additional liquidity and stability to the market.

Over the past few years, there has been a trend of increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency. Many financial institutions have begun to offer cryptocurrency-related products and services, such as custody solutions, trading platforms, and investment funds. Some have also started to explore the use of cryptocurrency and blockchain technology for internal operations and for improving the efficiency of financial systems.

However, institutional adoption of cryptocurrency is still in the early stages and is being held back by a number of challenges, including regulatory uncertainty, a lack of infrastructure, and concerns about security and market volatility. It is difficult to predict the exact extent to which cryptocurrency will be adopted by institutions in the future, as it will depend on a range of factors, including the regulatory environment, the development of infrastructure and security measures, and the level of public trust and acceptance.

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Crypto Research

Why Ethereum killers are killing themselves



Ethereum killers are killing themselves!

ChatGPT described the Ethereum killer as:

Ethereum killers refer to other blockchain projects that aim to surpass Ethereum in terms of features and adoption. While there have been many projects that have attempted to do so, Ethereum remains one of the most widely used and well-established blockchain platforms. Additionally, Ethereum is continuously evolving and implementing new upgrades to its network, making it difficult for other projects to truly “kill” it. However, it is important to note that the crypto and blockchain space is highly competitive and constantly evolving, so it’s possible for new projects to gain traction and potentially challenge Ethereum’s dominance in the future.

But they missed several points.

When those killers market themselves are better choices, they forget the on-dock experience that allows developers to transit from one blockchain to another.

There is no way you can ask developers to abandon their existing projects and choose your blockchain with no reason simply it is faster, cheaper, and low fees.

Of course, multi-chain is one way to connect with other blockchains, but it still needs to have security without the chain to be hacked.

It is simply to risky to transfer from one chain to another.

Another factor is scalability.

It is too overrated. With the faster scalability, you are likely to die fast too.

There is no way to build a community with speed and hope people will stay there to root for you.

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Crypto Research

Bitcoin is not efficient



Bitcoin is not efficient as we thought before.

ChatGPT said that

Bitcoin is considered to be efficient in terms of its ability to facilitate fast and secure transactions without the need for intermediaries. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are verified by a decentralized network of users called “miners,” which eliminates the need for banks or other financial institutions to act as intermediaries. Additionally, the use of blockchain technology, which is the underlying technology of Bitcoin, ensures that transactions are recorded immutably and transparently.

The problem is when Bitcoin becomes hype, and miners increase their energy usage to mine out of Bitcoin, potentially diminishing the return of input energy.

That is likely to make the Bitcoin price plateau and no longer can function as it intends to be.

It is unlikely that when supply is limited, the value of Bitcoin will go infinity. Instead, Bitcoin price will plateau until the mining exhausts out, and transaction fees will increase until people can no longer afford it.

Bitcoin is not a money instrument but to measure opportunities.

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Crypto Research

Crypto whales are secretly dumping



The bullish trend is up and continuing? No so fast!

ChatGPT defined crypto whale is:

A crypto whale is a term used to describe a person or entity that holds a large amount of cryptocurrency. These individuals or entities can have a significant impact on the market due to their ability to buy or sell large amounts of coins at once. They are also known to have the ability to manipulate the market in their favor.

The market sentiment is too optimistic about the bullish trend, indicating that investors are trying to recover 2022 losses as much as possible before it is too late.

Since institutional investors are hoarding more cashes to prepare the worst, crypto seems work at the best. 

However, whales are more cautious and unlikely to enter large positions until the economic indicators are clear.

The problem is that the market needs to include a critical point that the Fed still needs to do their increasing of the interest rate and dollar weakening is a short-term play.

The market will deteriorate faster than we expect to be. As a result, retail investors have to be very careful in managing their positions in crypto.

Whales are taking profits and patiently wait for another correction to come.

It will get worst before it gets better.

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