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Modern Economic Nonsense — Crypto winter prolonged with high inflation persists

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It’s been a challenging few months for the crypto world with prices falling since the start of January. However, this has also had an impact on the wider economy, which has resulted in high inflation rates. Cryptocurrencies are considered as a medium of exchange and are not meant to be saved or stored for future use. Therefore, holding cryptocurrencies attracts higher interest rates than holding traditional assets like government bonds or cash. The effect is that even though prices have fallen, it’s left investors with higher amounts of capital invested in cryptocurrencies than before. Furthermore, the prolonged crypto winter is another contributing factor to increasing inflation rates; as there is less demand for goods and services outside of the crypto community. 

The year-on-year inflation for retail goods has remained positive since December 2018. This means that although prices have fallen over time, they’ve only fallen by small amounts on each monthly basis. Meanwhile, core inflation (i.e food, energy and housing) has increased significantly since March 2021. In other words, while foods haven’t become more expensive since then, other essential items like rent and utilities have become a lot more expensive over time. Even as prices fall further in 2020, it seems unlikely we’ll see any significant reduction in inflation until after the end of Q1 2024, when third-quarter figures are released in early July 2022.

What determines consumer prices?

Consumer prices are determined by the supply and demand of goods and services. Typically, inflation occurs when there is an excessive increase in the supply of goods and services relative to demand. This usually happens when prices are kept too low for an extended period of time, or when demand is low but increasing.

Crypto winter delays price reduction

When prices fall due to a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies, this also results in increased demand for goods and services that use cryptocurrencies as a payment method. As a result, prices increase due to the increased demand as well as lower supply.

Consumer price growth acceleration

Over the past few months, there’s been a significant acceleration in core inflation. However, business costs have remained relatively flat. On the one hand, this suggests that businesses have started passing on price increases to customers. But on the other hand, it shows they haven’t been expanding their operations at the same rate as demand has increased. This indicates that businesses may not have enough customers to keep up with the demand for goods and services. However, many small businesses have flexibility in their price structure and can be easily weathered to adapt to the price surge. Crypto can also help small business owners to survive such an uncertain environment.

Crypto payment systems can sustain in a high inflation environment

Cryptocurrencies are meant to be used as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Therefore, cryptocurrencies are extremely susceptible to changing prices that can affect their overall value. If the prices of goods and services increase faster than the value of cryptocurrencies, then this leads to a decrease in the real-life worth of the assets. That is one reason the crypto market capitulates. However, it’s worth note-taking that the crypto payment system is on the rise in retail adoption, and users will have more alternative payment methods to pay off their purchases during the high inflation environment, which can set a foundation of the crypto payment infrastructure. Therefore, the negative impact of crypto winter will likely be reversed in the coming years.

Conclusion

Cryptocurrencies have been in a prolonged crypto winter due to low market prices, but the effect is starting to wear off. The prolonged crypto winter has also resulted in higher rates of inflation, which will likely persist until the end of 2020. The bad news is that the rate of inflation is expected to be persistent for a while. Therefore, the negative impact of crypto winter will likely be continued. In the meantime, consumers can take advantage of lower prices on goods and services due to the prolonged crypto winter, making it an ideal time to utilize more crypto payments if available to pay off purchases while enjoying the low costs of owning some cryptocurrencies.

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Crypto Research

The Future of Machine War II

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In late 2021, I wrote an article about A.I. vs. Blockchain. I realized it was closer than I expected.

https://medium.com/@xuanling11/artificial-intelligence-vs-blockchain-the-future-of-machine-war-b685d208ba20?sk=874af90c7acbe857fa004c0ebe0d5e28

Web2 is leading a future of technological centralism. 

The way we see the world in ancient is what we saw became what we believed. Later, the enlightenment process helped humans realize what they had seen was disguised by the nature principle. Once we tested our assumption and received accurate results, we thought we had mastered the nature principles. Yet, we did not make the world better than we thought we could. 

We are living in a world in which companies know more than you than yourself. Companies can likely tell you what you should believe without letting you know. 

The secret weapon that companies like Google invented is A.I. or Artificial Intelligence. 

If A.I. can think like a person, it can easily replace you! Since companies got all your data, you freely offer them by using their free services, and they can replace you one day without you realizing it. 

Without all conspiracy theories behind what Google may or will secretly develop, A.I. reaching consciousness is … impossible.

If it does, Google has successfully made a human – dumb!

The most advanced A.I. – Tesla Autopilot Program cannot distinguish objects between humans and other moving objects during driving.  

Using technology makes people dumber than they think because it takes away your consciousness – the ability to think uniquely!

Blockchain is the future of decentralization.

We need a peer-to-peer system to regain consciousness and break the chain from Web2. 

It gives individuals the power to rethink information.

Think about today’s media; all information is filtered to offer readers without any surprise. News is data that Web2 selected specifically for you to read. 

We need a decentralized system so that you can receive unfiltered information and gives you a surprise that sparks ideas of imagination.  

Web2 is afraid of the blockchain because they are too big to fail. 

 They mimic the blockchain by creating a centralized node system – social media network. 

It is a net growing outward through a single point. Only the problem is that connection is facilitated by technology. And the biggest failure is such technology has a single point of failure problem. 

And they cannot escape the law of economics – the law of diminishing. So we will see Web2 grow slower due to the law of diminishing that they require more data with few increments of advancement through A.I. without any breakthrough because A.I. is a deterministic system that works with a lack of randomness. 

In Web2, they assumed everyone was stupid, and they offered solutions to everyone.

In Web3, everyone is good and should anticipate solving a problem together.

If you enjoy reading my articles, buy me a coffee here.

Photo by Aideal Hwa on Unsplash

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Crypto Research

Financial sanction to mixers

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Have you heard about financial sanctions from the US on virtual currency? At least, I have not yet. But the US Department of Treasury has issued sanctions on two crypto services: Blender.io and Tornado Cash.

To clarify, the US sanctions on tools but not target specific entities or groups of people.

So why bother to sanction something that the government probably won’t be able to sanction in the first place?

What is a mixer?

A cryptocurrency mixer, sometimes referred to as a tumbler, is a tool for money laundering. The sole purpose of the invention is to make transactions untraceable.

How to mix?

Even crypto is pseudo-anonymous, but it is traceable through your wallet address. A mixer is a black box service to filter your traceable wallet address into the untraceable wallet address.

How to wash your money clean in the traditional way?

https://dimensiongrc.com/the-stages-of-money-laundering/

The assumption is you will not get caught at each stage, and then you place your dirty money in a bank through companies and use the funds to purchase legal goods like houses or luxury goods.

There are mature regulations and rules to stop you from putting your dirty money into banks.

Digtial money landury

https://www.eurospider.com/en/know-how/compliance/211-what-is-a-cryptocurrency-mixer

A Crypto mixer or tumbler is a service to pool dirty digital currency in their favor and redistribute it into designated wallet addresses or addresses randomly generated. 

It is a challenge to stop transactions because there is no entry point for law enforcement to stop at each stage. 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0768

Ultimate Mixer

Tornado Cash is the king of the mixer. Unfortunately, there is just no way to trace transactions anymore. It is a smart contract with zk-SNARKs (zero-knowledge proofs) that does not require revealing a wallet address during transactions and ghostly distributed funds without leaving any traces.

This tool is the ultimate weapon that the government has to shut down, or there is no way to prevent transactions.

In Conclusion

Let’s change the future – legally. 

If you enjoy reading my articles, buy me a coffee here.

Photo by Espen Bierud on Unsplash

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Crypto Research

Why there is not crypto banking exist

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We have always heard about cryptocurrencies, crypto exchange, banking, and trading platforms, but we do not really grasp the idea of crypto banking. Crypto banking is a contradicted idea. If crypto is to replace banks and give users full control of digital money, why do you put your crypto into the bank? The new research paper argued that there are risks for banks to adopt crypto, but they did it anyway.

Banks want crypto

Cryptocurrency has a rough road at the beginning and continues to experience a bumpy road ahead. The institutional investors were watching its performance. In early 2017, institutional investors had opportunities to adopt crypto, but they found out the return of the investments was less than traditional financial assets. Regulations were not a concern for some individual institutional owners, but banks were conservative at the time. As a result, some investors adopted it in early 2018 than banks did. Then suddenly, the crypto market took off in 2020, leaving many banks to regret their decision in 2017. Many banks set up their digital investment group to rush into the market and increase prices. Of course, many of their investment positions are instead of shadow positions. It is unclear how much they have been invested in and what vehicles they took to invest in cryptos.

Crypto Exchange

Crypto exchange is a bank-like platform for crypto. Banks offered a place to purchase fiat currency. Crypto exchange did the same duty as traditional banks did. Since there was a gap between the crypto and banks, the crypto exchange took responsibility and offered crypto services. The crypto exchange took off after 2020, and they left banks in the dust. Then, crypto winter came in early 2022, and banks again hesitated to enter the crypto and started denouncing crypto usage, particularly in the Defi area. But interestingly, they tried to find ways to get into crypto without being directly exposed to cryptocurrencies—hint: through hedge funds.

How much banks exposure to crypto

We do not know how much banks have been exposed to crypto. We learned that the big Wall Street players were exposed to the services of the digital asset through State Street of their $41.7 trillion assets. Some have been exposed due to Luna’s collapse and 3AC bankruptcy. But again, no specific dollar amount was provided. 

Survivors

Since the crypto winter, institutional investors have been cautious about crypto exposure. However, crypto exchanges are the winner again. They are exposed to crypto and take risks more than banks do. As a result, they likely will weather the uncertainty. Furthermore, there is no need for crypto banking to handle your crypto assets since many such services will not survive long in the crypto environment. 

Crypto is resilience

Despite its fluctuating price and unsecured assets, crypto is resilient to phase out any bad business ideas and bad actors in the economy who wants to or try to dominate the market but who transfers risks to users to believe they are the one who should take responsibility for their carelessness. Unfortunately, those business models will not survive long.

If you enjoy reading my articles, buy me a coffee here.

Photo by Luke White on Unsplash

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